Point Eleven. The Gap Between Brazil and Morocco 2026
Zero point eleven. That is the difference between Brazil’s expected goals and Morocco’s in a Group C draw that finished level on the scoreboard but barely level anywhere else. Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on June 14, 2026, in their World Cup group stage opener, and the post-match narrative will say Brazil were rattled. The numbers say something closer to even.
Here is what actually happened. Ismael Saibari chipped Morocco ahead in the 21st minute after a mistake from Lucas Paqueta. Vinicius Junior leveled it eleven minutes later, finishing a move started by Bruno Guimaraes. Brazil finished with 1.26 xG, Morocco with 1.37. Neither side managed a big chance created until the closing stages, and the 80,663 in the building watched two heavyweights cancel each other out almost stat for stat.
Make no mistake, this was not a Brazil collapse. It was a contest between two sides who matched each other in nearly every column that matters.
Start with the chances themselves, because the picture gets interesting fast. Igor Thiago’s headed opportunity in the 14th minute carried 0.67 xG, the single best chance of the entire match for either team, and he put it wide. Compare that to Saibari’s actual goal, worth just 0.64 xG from a one on one with Alisson Becker, who came off his line late and got punished for it. Brazil had the better individual chance and missed it. Morocco had the lesser one and scored it. That is not bad luck for Brazil. That is wastefulness in front of goal, plain and simple.
Possession sat at 51 percent for Brazil to 49 for Morocco, close enough to call a non-factor.
What the ball did with that possession matters more. Brazil completed 449 of their passes at 87 percent accuracy, Morocco landed 419 at 86 percent. Touches in the opposition box ran 22 for Brazil against 13 for Morocco, yet shots told a different story entirely. Morocco actually out-shot Brazil 14 to 12, with seven of their attempts coming from inside the box compared to Brazil’s nine. Having the ball more did not translate into clearly superior danger. It translated into a fairer fight than the famous shirt suggests.
Duels reveal who was winning the physical battle, and it was not the five-time champions. Morocco won 62 duels to Brazil’s 53, and recorded 18 tackles against Brazil’s 13. Noussair Mazraoui alone won seven duels and made three tackles from right back, a number that explains why Raphinha and Vinicius struggled to find consistent space down that flank in the first half.
Fouls and cards point to a scrappy, physical afternoon rather than a one-sided story. Brazil committed 16 fouls to Morocco’s 14, and Casemiro picked up a yellow card in the 37th minute for a bad foul, followed by Roger Ibanez in the 43rd. Two cautions inside six minutes, both for Brazil, both before half-time, suggest a side under more pressure than the eventual scoreline implies.
One number stands apart from the rest.
Yassine Bounou faced five shots on target and conceded an expected goals figure of 1.26, yet finished with a goals prevented score of plus 0.38, the only meaningfully positive number for either goalkeeper across the match. He raced off his line to deny Raphinha in the 83rd minute after a poor backpass from Issa Diop nearly gifted Brazil a winner, then needed treatment for his ankle moments later but stayed on.
So here is what nobody quite wants to ask. Brazil are five-time champions chasing a first title since 2002, and they were matched almost exactly in xG, shots, duels, and territory by a team ranked one place above them. If this is the version of Brazil that shows up against the tournament’s better sides, what happens when they meet one that does not sit back at 1-1 and play for the point.